America's Most Endangered Malls

• By Rick Newman
• On Friday June 26, 2009, 1:58 pm EDT

Birmingham's Century Plaza mall was a consumer mecca when it opened in 1971, drawing shoppers from outlying suburbs and even from other states. Over the years, however, people moved outward from central Birmingham, and new shopping centers sprouted around them. Sales at Century Plaza declined. Three of the mall's four big "anchor" tenants eventually left, and smaller retailers followed. By 2008, Century Plaza was a shadowy hulk with more shuttered stores than open ones. Then the last anchor tenant, Sears, announced it was leaving. The mall finally closed for good in early June.

[Slideshow: America's Most Endangered Malls]

Malls have a natural lifespan, as population centers shift, architecture evolves, and shopping habits change. But a sharp recession is clearly accelerating the demise of vulnerable retailers--and some of the shopping centers they inhabit. Plunging sales are one obvious reason. Many retailers are also saddled with heavy debt taken on in recent years to fund aggressive growth. And the credit crunch has made cash scarce for firms that need it most.

Those tough conditions have already driven retailers like Circuit City, Linens 'N Things, and Steve & Barry's out of business. Other chains are closing stores and slashing costs as they fight to survive. General Growth Properties, a Chicago firm that operates more than 200 malls--and owns the remnants of Century Plaza--declared bankruptcy in April and is working on a restructuring plan.

[See America's most profitable malls.]

The churn is transforming America's retail landscape. "During times like this, good malls tend to get better and bad malls tend to get worse," says Steve Sterrett, chief financial officer of Simon Property Group, the nation's largest mall operator. The first sign of trouble is often the departure of department stores and other anchor tenants, especially if those spaces stay vacant. High-quality, name-brand merchants often follow, with discounters--or nobody--replacing them. Shoppers sense the ennui, and gravitate toward malls that feel more vibrant, which only deepens the distress at troubled properties. By some estimates, about 10 percent of the America's malls could close within the next few years.

To gauge which malls are in trouble, U.S. News analyzed data from Green Street Advisors, an investment research firm in Newport Beach, Calif., that specializes in publicly owned real estate companies. Their data includes occupancy rates, sales per square foot, and quality grades for about 650 of America's biggest shopping centers. The average property in the data set has sales of about $420 per square foot and an occupancy rate of 92 percent, good for an A- grade.

[See how to tell if a mall is in trouble.]

The malls at the bottom of the list earn grades of C- or D>>>